European Equities could Rally 10%

European equities could jump 10% on the back of a historic agreement over fiscal stimulus in the European Union, Morgan Stanley said on 2020-07-27.

Europe’s STOXX 600 is down about 11% since the start of the year. In comparison, the S&P 500 is only down about 1% since the start of the year.

After one of the longest ever European summits a week ago, the 27 member states agreed to tap the markets and raise up 750 billion euros — an unprecedented deal at the EU level, which has yet to be greenlighted by the European Parliament, that has opened the door to common debt borrowing.

The investment bank believes that the recent decision is a “game changer” for Europe, in dealing with the current economic crisis, but also in erasing some long-standing fears over disintegration.

“The European Union could be bureaucratic and that’s to be expected but I think the European recovery fund is a dramatic change, it is unprecedented in terms of its formation,” Chris Dyer, director of global equity at Eaton Vance, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe Monday.

He expects European equities to outperform U.S. stocks.

“What we are seeing in Europe is greater cohesion … whereas in the U.S. there is more policy uncertainty to come,” he said.

“We see scope for a further 10% outperformance from EMU [European monetary union] equities versus global peers, led by Peripheral indices (15% outperformance),” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.

Source: CNBC, 2020-07-27, “European Equities Could Rally 10% on the back of Historic Fiscal Stimulus, Morgan Stanley Predicts”